• MESO: Heavy Rain - floodi

    From Weather Alert to All on Sat Jan 1 14:13:00 2022
    AWUS01 KWNH 011552
    FFGMPD
    VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-012200-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1052 AM EST Sat Jan 01 2022

    Areas affected...much of Kentucky adn a small part of West
    Virginia

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 011600Z - 012200Z

    Summary...Scattered convection is expected to repeat over areas
    that received 2-6 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. Flash
    flooding issues (including significant impacts) will continue.

    Discussion...Latest radar mosaic indicates three convective
    regimes across the discussion area: 1) A lead, yet weakening MCS
    currently over southern West Virginia, 2) scattered, yet gradually
    deepening convection from north-central Middle Tennessee into
    southern/eastern Kentucky, and 3) an elongated MCS that was
    forward-propagating along well-organized convective outflow from
    south of SDF to near HOP. Each of these convective regimes have
    proven to be efficient rainfall producers. The lead MCS over West
    Virginia initially produced 2-6 inches of rain in an axis across southern/eastern Kentucky this morning along with extensive
    impacts. Ongoing convection continuing to traverse those areas of
    earlier rainfall continue to produce occasional 0.2-1.0 inch/hr
    rain rates. The linear MCS across western Kentucky was also
    producing rates nearing 1 inch/hour.

    Observational trends suggest that the ongoing convective regime
    should continue through the next 6 hours. The linear complex in
    western Kentucky will make gradual eastward progress into central
    Kentucky through 21Z. That eastward progression will be slow
    enough to maintain flash flood concerns - especially where earlier
    heavy rain fell. Meanwhile, towering cumulus over north-central
    Middle Tennessee will eventually mature into moderate to heavy
    rain producers while traversing areas that received abundant rain
    earlier. Continued flooding concerns are expected as a result of
    this activity along with moist soils and continued runoff based on
    recent Flash data. The flash flood risk will be highest in areas
    that have experienced earlier rainfall along a broad axis from HOP
    to BWG to JKL. Given the antecedent rainfall, wet soils, efficient
    runoff, and previously observed, significant impacts are expected.

    Cook

    ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...

    ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 38358448 38268283 37988168 37678045 37488031
    37288085 37228165 37128266 36888388 36728538
    36418789 36438848 36668862 36958875 37318801
    37808662 38248547

    $$